Is the COVID pandemic nearing an end? Experts weigh in on impact of omicron variantThe Honorable Robert Redfield, M.D.
How will the world decide when the pandemic is over?
There’s no clear-cut definition for when a pandemic starts and ends, and how much of a threat a global outbreak is posing can vary by country.
“It’s somewhat a subjective judgment because it’s not just about the number of cases. It’s about severity, and it’s about impact,” says Dr. Michael Ryan, the World Health Organization‘s emergencies chief.
In January 2020, WHO designated the virus a global health crisis “of international concern.” A couple months later in March, the United Nations health agency described the outbreak as a pandemic, reflecting the fact that the virus had spread to nearly every continent and that numerous health officials were describing it as a pandemic.
The pandemic may be widely considered over when WHO decides the virus is no longer an emergency of international concern, a designation its expert committee has been reassessing every three months. But when the most acute phases of the crisis ease within countries could vary.
“There is not going to be one day when someone says, ‘OK, the pandemic is over,’” says Dr. Chris Woods, an infectious disease expert at Duke University. Although there’s no universally agreed-upon criteria, he said countries will likely look for sustained reduction in cases over time.
“Even after the pandemic ends, COVID will still be with us,” he says.