In 2020, the U.S. economy was hit by the worst macroeconomic shock since the Great Depression. In this talk, the former Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers quantifies the magnitude of that adverse shock, both in absolute terms and in relation to past recessions and discusses the effects of the Federal government’s unprecedented economic policy responses. He also offers insights on the current U.S. and global outlook as policymakers continue to struggle with economic fallout from the pandemic, and identifies policy priorities to support continued recovery, with a particular focus on the challenges posed by rising inflation.
The four years of the Trump Administration witnessed economic changes of unprecedented scale–the largest and most comprehensive tax reform in a generation; sweeping deregulation of the U.S. economy; a dramatic shift in international trade policy; the worst macroeconomic shock since the Great Depression; the biggest fiscal response to economic crisis in U.S. history; and the shortest recession and fastest recovery ever observed in the U.S. In addition, on the eve of the COVID pandemic, we observed the biggest gains in real median household income in U.S. history, the biggest ever decline in poverty, and, in a sharp reversal of trends previously underway during the post-2008 recovery, declining wage, income, and wealth inequality. In this talk, the former Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers discusses the effects and legacy of that economic policy agenda and offers lessons for current policymakers.
In 2000, the U.S. established Permanent Normal Trade Relations with the People’s Republic of China. Empirical economic research is only just beginning to quantify the magnitude of that policy change on trends in U.S. employment, investment, innovation, and mortality. In this talk, the former Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers discusses the ongoing effects of PNTR on the U.S. and world economies, particularly the context of the growing importance of networks. He also discusses the Phase I trade agreement, and the implications of recent economic developments in China for the U.S. and global economies.